You make some good points. The thing is that Transnistria is a small region, too small to be independent. It will inevitably end up as either a protectorate of a neighboring larger state – in this case Moldova or Ukraine. Or it will dissolve, probably the best solution if it is peacefully along the national lines, Moldovans to Moldova, Ukrainians to Ukraine, etc…

I just fear that someone will exploit this as a political powder keg and cause another crisis as South Ossetia was in August 2008. Certainly, the current leadership in Moscow would be all for a crisis here, so that they'll have the perfect pretext for increased military presence and a return to the old Soviet sphere of influence/coercion.


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