I think it is an interesting piece, but it does have fatalism written all over it. The author, Friedman, seems to think that Poles will always view Russians and Germans as their enemies and thus do everything to hinder them. And that the Russians and Germans will do everything they can to hinder the Poles.
Certainly, this is happening to a degree and so his reasoning is not totally crazy, and his scenario is imaginative in a way, but he does have an inherent pessimism to him I think. In fact, I'd just call him straight up conservative: people will always just be people and there is not room for amelioration.