>Also, goes without saying that if Russia occupies Belorus, partitions it
and tells one part of it that they’re actually > ancient Balts and the
reason they suck is because those Belorussian dudes oppressed them for
1000 years – I’ll be > all for it.


Russians are gutless to occupy Belarus.  Unlike Ukraine Belarus has a homogeneous society. Belarusians, Poleshuks, Poles, Russians, Balts – are all Belarusians. Our ethic Russian citizens are more Belarusian patriots than Belarusian themselves. Russian won’t have the support of the locals.
Belarus is weaker than Russia. But we will find a way to counter the Russians.
Belarus was labeled a partisan republic, because the  largest partisan movement against Wehrmacht forces was in Belarus. During WWII the entire Belarusian community was mobilised against invading forces and we are not a large nation. I expect to be the same against any large invading force.

In fact, Belarusians are more likely to take over  western parts of Russia than Russia over Belarus. On several occasions western Russians have been asking authorities to run a referendum to join Belarus. On several occasions, Belarusians were talking about taking over the Kaliningrad region.

That’s off-topic. I am trying to understand the reasons why Bulgarians are defying Macedonians. Quite a good small ethnicity with a separate identity trying to establish themselves. I have my own explanation. I don’t think you’d like hearing it.