Interesting article, at least an interesting point of view. With Gavrilo or without Gavrilo war would occur sooner or later. AU wasn`t ready for the war and she didin`t wanted (before Gavrilo). Old Kaiser knowed the real situation in AU and her weakness, so he wasn`t so keen to go in war. Assasination gave him no other choices, pressure from generals and people was too hard. After he signed the declaration of war he said: I do it the best i could, and now, everything is over. He knowed that this war was the end of Old Empire.
Germany wanted this war, she wanted to be a colonial force, she wanted new regions, expansion. New country,full of pride, militaristic, it was well expected. Even though old Bismarck was against the war, whole life he was trying to sourround the Germany with friends and he wanted to achive everything through diplomatic ways. His Kaiser Wilhelm was totally different person, he tought that army and militaristic conquer is the only way to achive Germany goals.
Assasination of Archduke have a lot of explanations and every is legimit, of course, depend from which angle is looked. To me, i speak only for me and this is my opinion, Gavrilo was just extend hand of some imperialistic circles in the high elements of serbian government. Serbia put on themsleves the name of southslavic Piemont, the unificator of all South Slavs. Archduke surely wasn`t the best solution for them. He was interested for reforming the AU. The idea of Trialism:
[img width=700 height=350]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/hr/6/6a/Trijalisti%C4%8Dka_zastava_tri_grba.jpg” />
[img width=700 height=551]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/hr/c/c7/Trialisti%C4%8Dni_zemljevid_Be%C4%8D_1905.jpg” />
In that idea Croats would be that factor of unification, and it would ease some ethnic troubles.
of course this Archduke plan was obstacle for Serbian expansion and role of unificator.
In the end, it ended how it ended. For Croats everything was the same, we changed one foreign dynasty for another foreign dynasty. It was also foreign country like it was AU, maybe even worst then it was AU, because we lost some of our national territories, repression was stronger (political murders etc)… Nothing good for any of them. My opinion.