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- September 4, 2012 at 3:05 pm #343941
AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 3:21 pm #394496
Damn that site doesn't open for me but judging from link i bet its about growth of China? Well in that case China is definitely rising but much of it's growth is fake and there are high stakes on the table if you know what i mean.September 4, 2012 at 3:24 pm #394497
The latest news from Beijing is indicative of Chinese weakness: a persistent slowdown of economic growth, a glut of unsold goods, rising bad bank loans, a bursting real estate bubble, and a vicious power struggle at the top, coupled with unending political scandals.
I do not know whether it is bad news for me, or good one The only good news would reducing of their military spending.September 4, 2012 at 3:40 pm #394498
Paper Tiger. China has had a remarkable growth for the past 30 or so years, but in a capitalist system (China is by now fairly capitalist) there is the infamous business cycle – boom then bust. They left Marxist stagnation to go into Capitalist chaos with the state frantically trying to keep things in balance, but it is all slipping now. China is huge and cannot provide anywhere near enough for its own people. They depend on exports and with the global economic slowdown, they got hit hard. It wasn't obvious right away, nor it is all obvious now, but China will be going much slower in the coming years.
Their military is huge, but used mainly for internal security. Increased military spending was largely made to increase soldiers' pay to ensure loyalty, as China actually has a professional army. Pro is always better than conscript, but most of their soldiers are not too well equipped. They can only use a part of their military for overseas power projection. So, in the end, they are mainly powerful since so many nations buy from them… should those nations find alternatives, China won't be able to do much about it… meaning they're screwed. Everyone needs cheap goods, but no one wants to make them the solution for the past 30 years was to have China make the cheap stuff, but if China falters too much to satisfy that need, than Europe and the US will look elsewhere. Africa would be a viable alternative here, I think. Needs work and development, but it's a continent full of people who will be ready and willing to work for cheap as the Chinese have been doing all this time.September 4, 2012 at 3:43 pm #394499
AnonymousQuote:Africa would be a viable alternative here, I think. Needs work and development, but it's a continent full of people who will be ready and willing to work for cheap as the Chinese have been doing all this time.
This.September 4, 2012 at 3:48 pm #394500
It is a mistake to underestimate China. It is a growing economy. Even though economic growth may be less steep it is is still taking place. Lithuania has been developing links with China. I think it is naive but some people seem to want to develop ties with Beijing maybe as a potential friend in a distant place.
A large part of the country is underdeveloped still. There is room for economic development in such places. It is still early days. Only in 1979 did economic reforms begin, so we will see how the country looks in 2030. I will be very interested to see what developments take place. We can never tell the future but maybe by that time the living standards will have risen to those equivalent in Korea or Europe, maybe their military will be modernised and they will be international players on par with or even surpassing the United States?
Of course as others have said it is not without its problems. Even still, we can never tell the future. A quasi-planned economy with heavy state involvement can help them to develop quickly as the South Koreans did. They are also slowly expanding their military presence in Asia.September 4, 2012 at 3:56 pm #394501
BalticBoy problem is that much of Chinese growth is actually from building massive amounts of towns all over China. These towns are financed by state and as long state keeps ordering new towns so long there will be growth. This is all fake however because most cant afford to buy apartments. If we cut out these project i think we can also cut out much of economic boom. Now Chinese are already building ghost towns in Africa (financed by Chinese state) so that they can keep Chinese employment and growth up (native Africans are mostly not employed). Even there nobody cant afford apartment. So much of it (but not all) is fake.September 4, 2012 at 3:57 pm #394502
AnonymousQuote:BalticBoy problem is that much of Chinese growth is actually from building massive amounts of towns all over China. These towns are financed by state and as long state keeps ordering new towns so long there will be growth. This is all fake however because most cant afford to buy apartments. If we cut out these project i think we can also cut out much of economic boom. Now Chinese are already building ghost towns in Africa (financed by Chinese state) so that they can keep Chinese employment and growth up (native Africans are mostly not employed). Even there nobody cant afford apartment. So much of it (but not all) is fake.
I see. It sounds like the Soviet economy. Maybe if they go into other areas and do not rely on simply building cities?September 4, 2012 at 4:17 pm #394503
China is facing a huge demographic crisis of an aging population and fewer kids to care for them. State aid for the elderly has been gutted and now we have the scenario where one kid is going to be responsible for caring for two parents and often 2 in laws as well. China is a low wage and cheap labor society that can't grow with internal demand. The stores are filled with contaminated and fake products and medications. Add to this the fact that 700 million farmers live on less than two dollars a day with no education and health care.
As far as a military threat to the USA. There is one big problem. We owe them a trillion bucks. Now when I owe you 100$, I have a problem because I can pay you. When I owe you a trillion dollars, you have a problem, because you really need me to pay you back. China also has 4 trillion dollars in US dollars in reserve, if they do anything to crash the US dollars, they will, destroy their own currency reserves.
China also is a horrifically corrupt society with repression and censorship. Most Chinese expect the cops and politicians to be corrupt scum and there are several riots and protests in the provinces that are rarely reported. No one actually believes anything the see on state controlled news and the internet cops are faced with a sophisticated group of hackers that get past the "river crabs."
My conclusion is that China will crash sooner than later………….
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